If you follow Kenyan construction news casually, you might be confused. One report tells you building approvals in Nairobi have dropped sharply. Another tells you cement consumption is climbing. Both cannot be true at the same time, surely?
Except they are. And understanding why reveals something important about where the market actually stands in 2026.
Let us lay them side by side.
According to Knight Frank’s latest market update covering the first eleven months of 2025, cement consumption rose 21 percent year-on-year . That is not a small bump. It is a significant increase, pointing to active sites, ongoing work, and materials moving.
Yet over the same period, the value of approved building plans in Nairobi City County fell sharply by about 24 percent . Residential approvals specifically dropped 27 percent .
So more cement is being poured, but fewer new projects are being given the green light.
This is not a data error. It is a market signal.
Knight Frank senior research analyst Charles Macharia puts it plainly: the sharp decline in building approvals “signals a market in consolidation mode” .
In plain language, developers and investors are not launching new projects at the same rate they were. They are focusing on completing what they already started. The cranes you see across Nairobi’s skyline are largely working on projects approved in 2023 and 2024. The new applications are not coming through at the same volume.
This is a deliberate strategic shift, not a crisis. Macharia explains that developers are “strategically completing current inventories rather than launching new projects” . They are responding to market conditions by pulling back on speculation and focusing on delivery.
There is another factor at play, and it would be naive to ignore it.
Kenya faces general elections in 2027. That is next year. In the Kenyan context, the 12 to 18 months before an election traditionally bring a slowdown in major investment decisions. Investors, both local and international, tend to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach until the political landscape becomes clearer.
Knight Frank notes this explicitly: political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections is driving caution, with most significant office development now scheduled for delivery after 2027 . Developers are not abandoning projects. They are timing them.
This two-market reality affects everyone differently. The table below breaks it down.
| Market Player | How the Numbers Affect Them | The 2026 Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Developers with active sites | Cement consumption is rising, so your sites should be busy. | This is your year to deliver. Focus on execution, quality, and completing existing stock. New launches can wait. |
| Developers planning new projects | Approvals are falling, meaning longer timelines and potentially tougher scrutiny. | Do not expect quick approvals. Factor extended timelines into feasibility. Consider whether waiting until after 2027 makes sense. |
| Contractors and builders | Your pipeline depends on where you are positioned. | If you are working on ongoing projects, you are busy. If you rely on new project starts, you may be feeling the slowdown. Diversify your client base. |
| Suppliers and material vendors | Cement consumption is up, so materials are moving. | Your customers are the active sites. Focus on serving them reliably. The slowdown in new starts will hit you later, not now. |
| Investors and financiers | Caution is rational, but opportunities exist in quality projects. | Knight Frank CEO Mark Dunford puts it directly: “The markets rewarding quality, sustainability and clear demand fundamentals will thrive, while those chasing speculative growth will pause” . Back projects with strong fundamentals. |
Nairobi tells the clearest story because it has the most data. The 24 percent drop in approval values is concentrated in residential, but commercial approvals have also softened. This is not a Nairobi-specific problem—it is a market-wide adjustment—but Nairobi leads the trend.
What is happening on the ground? Developers who bought land during the post-COVID land rush are now building out those sites. The projects approved two or three years ago are reaching completion. New land banking has slowed. New applications have slowed. The machine is still running, but fewer new inputs are going in.
Dunford’s observation about quality, sustainability, and demand fundamentals is worth dwelling on.
In a consolidation phase, marginal projects fall away. The ones that proceed are those with clear demand, strong design, and realistic pricing. This is not a bad thing. A market that rewards fundamentals rather than speculation is a healthier market in the long run.
For builders, this means your reputation for quality matters more now than it did during the boom. Clients are not approving new projects lightly. They are being selective. They want partners who deliver, not partners who promise.
Stepping back from the data, what does this mean for a Kenyan construction firm operating in 2026?
Your existing clients are your priority. The projects already in motion are where the work is. Cement consumption is rising because sites are active. Focus on delivering those projects exceptionally well. Satisfied clients on completing projects are your best source of referrals when the market opens again.
New business development requires patience. Approvals are taking longer. Decision cycles are stretched. Do not mistake slow responses for lack of interest. Factor extended timelines into your sales forecasting and cash flow planning.
Position yourself for the post-election rebound. 2027 is next year. By late 2026, forward-looking developers will begin preparing for the post-election environment. Be ready. Have your case studies ready. Have your team ready. Have your capacity ready.
Quality is your differentiator. In a consolidating market, the gap between good builders and average builders widens. Clients remember who delivered when pressure was on. Be the one they remember.
Kenya’s construction sector is not in trouble. Cement consumption is up 21 percent. That is growth by any measure. Sites are active. Materials are moving. People are working.
What is happening is a strategic pause on new commitments, driven by political caution and a natural consolidation after several years of intense activity. It is rational behaviour, not panic.
The developers who thrive in this environment will be those who read the signals correctly: finish what you started, maintain quality, prepare for the next cycle, and do not mistake temporary caution for permanent decline.
As Dunford summarised, the markets rewarding fundamentals will thrive. The ones chasing speculation will pause.
In 2026, being on the right side of that divide is everything.
